Multi-Model Ecologies For Addressing Multi-Scale, Multi-Perspective Policy Problems

Many key societal problems share a set of common features – multiple interacting temporal and spatial scales, multiple valid perspectives, changing requirements and unquantifiable uncertainties. These characteristics substantially stress our cognitive and computational resources, limiting our capacity to effectively address these problems. We introduce an approach for dealing with the inherent complexity of such problems. At the core of this approach is the notion of a multi-model ecology – an interacting and constantly evolving system of models, datasets, interfaces and humans tasked with enhancing the ability of decision makers to effectively address a complex policy problem. The multi-model ecology approach entails the systematic fragmentation and gradual reconstitution of a problem’s multiple components and dimensions in an evolving participatory context. We describe an implementation of this approach currently in progress – focused on electricity infrastructure vulnerability to climate change – and identify several key areas of research for developing this approach further.